Posted by: kcgadiyar | February 18, 2011

ICC Cricket World Cup Predictions: Match 1 – India vs Bangladesh

Before i start with picking a winner, let me first say, What an opening ceremony. Bangladesh went above and beyond with the ceremony. It went a long way to make up for the shambles which happened during the 1996 WC opening ceremony when the much hyped “Laser Show” was interrupted due to windy conditions.

The methodology for predictions is explained in THIS post

The first match being predicted is India vs Bangladesh – My pick for this is India of course, considering that India will be looking for revenge for 2007 as well as wanting to stamp their authority as favorites for the cup. But what do the prediction methods say. Lets get into it.

1. Ladbrokes.com:


Ladbrokes sees this match as Bangladesh 5/1 and India 1/8. This means that if you bet 8 rupees on India you will get one rupee back, so it considers India overwhelming favorites.

In a strange move, it sees Tamim Iqbal scoring the fastest 50 with 4/9 on him. Sehwag comes second with 13/8. Never thought that the Bangladesh opener would be preferred over the most destructive player in the game.

India 1 – Bangladesh 0

2. Asking my manager – When i asked my manager who he thought would win in the India – Bangladesh match, he shot back with “I know as much about this as you knew about the Packers vs Steelers superbowl” before adding “I didn’t know Bangladesh had a cricket team”. I am going to take that to mean that he thinks India will win.

India 2 – Bangladesh 0

3. Twitter presence:

This is how i decided to measure twitter presence since i obviously cannot go and read every single twitter post, i just searched for India, India cricket and then Bangladesh and Bangladesh cricket and based on how quickly the feed refreshed i declared a winner. Today may not have been the best possible day to do this experiment since Bangladesh was hosting the opening ceremony and so the keywords Bangladesh and Bangladesh cricket literally obliterated India and Indian cricket. So as far as twitter presence is concerned today – Bangladesh beats India by a thumping margin.

India 2 – Bangladesh 1

4. Online Astrology Site:

As per our astrological guide for the duration of the World Cup, this is what will happen for the first match:
1st and 7th sublords are same(saturn) when match starts and it is retrograde. So it will be a well fought tough match. but 11th sublord is weaker than 5th sublord so end result is not much in favour of home team. Players who will perform for india will be sachin, gambhir, harbhajan, yusuf pathan.

Basically, the home team will lose. So they are predicting India.

India 3 – Bangladesh 1

5. Octopus Paul Simulation: I will be asking the questions in the format “Will the <home team> beat the <away team>?” And the question will only be asked once. When i asked “Will Bangladesh beat India?” this was the result.

Pretty clear from Paul. India to win.

India 4 – Bangladesh 1

6. Experts picks: This has to be the most boring experts picks ever. Every single analyst is saying the same thing “India will win, Bangladesh will put up a tough fight, and can pull off a surprise, but India to win

India 5 – Bangladesh 1

7. EA Sports Cricket Simulations: What an awesome match, if the real match is half as good as this one, we are in for a treat.

The story of the match – Dhoni, as is his wont, lost the toss. Luckily Bangladesh decided to bowl first and had the Indians bowled out for 260 which led to one of the best chases and matches seen so far. So who won? Here is the scorecard

A spirited chase, but Bangladesh ended up falling 7 runs short. This was anyones match till the penultimate ball when Bangladesh needed 8 to win off 2. In case you are interested in knowing, Yuvraj Singh was the man of the match. This means that the running tally stands at

India 6 – Bangladesh 1

8. Form guide: The form guide for the 2 teams is as follows (most recent match first)

India (WW in the warmups) LLWW

Bangladesh (LW in the warmups) WWWL

If we consider the warmups, India are the form team, but the ICC does not consider the warm ups as official matches. Hence, looking at the 4 matches prior to the warmups, Bangladesh edge India with a 3-1 record as compared to India’s 2-2 record. Edge: Bangladesh

India 6 – Bangladesh 2

9. The opposite of my pick: I am supporting India, so the opposite of my pick goes to Bangladesh for the win.

India 6 – Bangladesh 3

With all method tabulated, we finally end up with India favored by 6 methods and Bangladesh by 3 methods. So a 66.67% chance of India winning over Bangladesh.

Which match would you like to see featured here next? Do let me know and join me next week as we see which methods got it right, which ones got it wrong and which one will emerge on top when it is all said and done.

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Responses

  1. Karthik,

    Few things to mention:
    1. Next match I wish to be predicted – NZ v AUS match on 25th Feb
    2. Great method/process for prediction
    3. You are getting me inspired to go back to update my own blog which is dead since May 2010 🙂
    4. Did you really play the EA cricket match or simulate it ?? 🙂
    5. And yes…you really seem to have a lot of spare time in hand

    Looking forward to visit your blog next time around

    • Sure, people on my twitter list suggested the same match, and it goes well with my one match a week thing. The EA cricket was simulated and then i ran through the highlights, this eliminates any bias on my part. As for the too much time thing, well, not actually. This post took a long time to put together though, this is why i cannot do this for most matches and hence have to limit it to a match a week.

  2. […] India vs Bangladesh […]


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