Posted by: kcgadiyar | February 24, 2011

ICC Cricket World Cup Predictions: Match 8 –Australia vs New Zealand

Good first week in the World Cup. The pick of the matches was definitely the Dutch running England close. Too bad we didn’t get to see an upset. Getting back to predictions, for week 1, India was predicted by the majority of the methods and so a majority of them get off the mark.

The methodology for predictions is explained in THIS post

The second match being predicted is Australia vs New Zealand – My pick for this is Australia for a few reasons:

– New Zealand has been in a downward spiral in ODIs

– Australia were not quite clinical in their first match, but still showed us what they are capable of and if everything clicks, they are one of the favorites

– New Zealand is very dependent on Vettori’s bowling, especially in subcontinent conditions. If Australis neutralize that threat, there is almost no second line of attack.

What do the prediction methods say? Let us take a look.

1. Record so far (1-0)

Ladbrokes sees this match as Australia 2/5 and New Zealand 2/1. Clearly NZ are the underdogs as per them. So Australia favored to win.

In the side bet, it sees Shane Watson and Cameron White favored to hit the most boundaries with Ross Taylor favored to hit the most sixes. Clearly they think New Zealand are better at clearing the ropes but do not do so regularly.

Australia 1 – New Zealand 0

2. Asking my manager –Record so far 1-0

Last week, i found that my manager does not want to answer cricket queries, so this week i disguised the query as a different question. I asked him “What would be your choice for a good holiday destination, Australia or New Zealand considering that both are close to each other”. Big Mistake, apparently during his navy days he was posted in New Zealand and he started describing the beauty of the place and kept going for what seemed like eternity. So according to him, New Zealand is favored over Australia for vacations, but it will do for this case

Australia 1 – New Zealand 1

3. Twitter presence:Record so far 0-1

This is how i decided to measure twitter presence since i obviously cannot go and read every single twitter post, i just searched for Australia, Australia cricket and then New Zealand and New Zealand cricket and based on how quickly the feed refreshed i declared a winner.

Again, circumstances beyond my control caused a clear winner to emerge. This time it was the Christchurch earthquake, New Zealand was constantly in twitter timelines.So as far as twitter presence is concerned today – New Zealand beats Australia

Australia 1 – New Zealand 2

4. Online Astrology Site:Record so far 1-0

As per our astrological guide for the duration of the World Cup, this is what will happen for this match:
Natal Moon is placed in Sagittarius sign. Transiting Moon is passing through Scoripo sign, which indicates equal plenatary positions for both teams for the toss. For Ponting, Natal Moon is placed in Gemini sign. Transiting Moon is passing through Scorpio sign, indicates planetary position is not good for New Zealand Team. 53% of New Zealand winning the toss and 52% of Australia winning the match

In plain English, NZ to win the toss, Australia to win the match

Australia 2 – New Zealand 2

5. Octopus Paul Simulation:Record so far 1-0

I will be asking the questions in the format “Will the <home team> beat the <away team>?” And the question will only be asked once. When i asked “Will Australia beat New Zealand?” this was the result.

Pretty clear from Paul. New Zealand to win.

Australia 2 – New Zealand 3

6. Experts picks:Record so far 1-0

Close thing in online previews for the match, most analysts feel NZ is due, but think that Australia have too much firepower for them, so Australia to win

Australia 3 – New Zealand 3

7. EA Sports Cricket Simulations:Record so far 1-0

The EA simulation was not as good a match as last time, in fact it was disappointing.

The story of the match – Overcast conditions prevail. New Zealand win the toss and decide to bowl to take advantage of the conditions. What followed is a massacre as the scorecard will demonstrate

New Zealand beat Australia by by 8 wickets with 7 overs to spare as per the simulation. Interesting to see if this goes down in the actual match as well.

Man of the match: Who else, Daniel Vettori.

Australia 3 – New Zealand 4

8. Form guide:Record so far 1-0

The form guide for the 2 teams is as follows (most recent match first)

Australia: WWWW

New Zealand: WWLW

Australia are coming in to this match on the back of an undefeated streak. the from favors them. Edge: Australia

Australia 4 – New Zealand 4

9. The opposite of my pick:Record so far 0-1

Close predictions this time, comes down to this last one. I think Australia will win this one, so the opposite of my pick goes to New Zealand for the win.

Australia 4 – New Zealand 5

So with all these unscientific methods tabulated, New Zealand edge Australis 5-4 i.e. a 55% chance of NZ winning with a 45% chance of Australia. If the actual match is as close as the predictions, it will be a real thriller. Will the match mirror the predictions? We will have to watch and find out.

Which match would you like to see featured here next? Do let me know and join me next week as we see which methods got it right, which ones got it wrong and which one will emerge on top when it is all said and done.



  1. […] Australia vs New Zealand […]

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